LOS DRIVERS DEL MODELO PRODUCTIVO Tecnología y medio ambiente

Es importante atreverse a planificar cuando domina la incertidumbre. Los momentos de cambio y transición, que a lo largo de la historia económica reciente han venido acompañados de grandes crisis financieras, son momentos perfectos para sembrar un cultivo de oportunidades futuras.

No se trata de caer en el tópico, por otra parte cierto, de que en toda crisis hay una oportunidad. No se trata tampoco de asimilar estos momentos desde una posición únicamente analítica. Y, finalmente, tampoco resulta óptimo adoptar posiciones desiderativas o hundidas en un optimismo sin anclaje real.

Los momentos de cambio y transición son, por encima de todo, tiempo de planificación. Sólo de este modo podremos sentar bases sólidas, llegando al fondo de las cosas, obteniendo una visión holística y asumiendo que el riesgo está siempre en mantenerse en la zona de confort.

No se puede prever el futuro pero podemos ayudar a configurarlo planificando con antelación. Y planificar la salida de la zona de confort ha de ser, por lo tanto, la tarea fundamental en un momento de incertidumbre.

Bajo esta visión podemos abordar el debate, tan presente pero tan poco desarrollado, del cambio de modelo productivo. Pero hemos de hacerlo de modo que vaya más allá de las simples infraestruturas tradicionales.

Esto no quiere decir que no sean relevantes (tanto para los países en vías de desarrollo  como para los desarrollados), pero deberán crearse bajo nuevos criterios tecnológicos y medioambientales.

Cuatro premisas fundamentales

  1. A día de hoy ningún país puede planificar su modelo productivo sin verse a sí mismo en el contexto mundial. Los cambios se suceden y los contextos resultan variables. En este sentido, cabe destacar que previsiblemente, dadas las complejas condiciones del contexto mundial por la contracción de China y Latinoamérica, el PIB mundial sufrirá una nueva contracción.
  1. Se trata de ver en qué puedo ser fuerte durante los próximos 10 años y no sólo en lo que soy fuerte ahora. Hay que mirar más a lo que se puede hacer (capacidad potencial) que a lo que ya se hace (capacidad real).
  1. Un modelo productivo eficaz debe contar con el concurso de las expectativas ciudadanas, el potencial de los recursos, la voluntad política, el vigor empresarial y la sostenibilidad medioambiental y la tecnología.
  1. Los beneficios del modelo deben ser amplios, integrales, transversales y capaces de aglutinar viabilidad económica, sostenibilidad financiera, ventajas sociales y beneficios medioambientales.

El espacio común para un modelo productivo de escala mundial

Sin renunciar a la especialización de las diferentes zonas geográficas (áreas regionales, rutas del comercio internacional y centros de consumo) es determinante encontrar un punto de encuentro del que partir, que facilite sinergias entre esas zonas y que permita establecer una pauta de desarrollo social y económico global.

Este espacio común es, a día de hoy, aquel en el que conviven la tecnología, la energía y el medio ambiente, mientras que la especialización por zonas geográficas ha de venir determinada en base a los siguientes criterios:

– Necesidades de desarrollo social y económico intra-área.

– Potencial de aprovechamiento sostenible de los recursos.

– Contexto jurídico, político e institucional.

– Ventajas competitivas en el contexto internacional (inter-área).

A partir del análisis de estas cuatro variables podremos determinar el core competitivo (siempre en términos de sostenibilidad económica, financiera, social y medioambiental) de cada área.

En próximos artículos haremos referencias a las cuatro oportunidades potenciales que podrán promoverse, sin que esto sea incompatible con que cada país cuente con sus propio plan estratégico.

En próximos artículos haremos referencias a las cuatro oportunidades potenciales que podrán promoverse, sin que esto sea incompatible con que cada país cuente con sus propio plan estratégico.

NEW TERRITORIAL FOCUS ON WORLD ECONOMY

 OECD has reduced recently world economy growth perspectives. GDP has been fixed in a 3% during 2015 and it’s previewing a strengthening for 2016 situating GDP in a 3.6%

Although progression of the USA’s (being this country the first principal value in world economy) GDP is 2.4% for 2015 and 2.6% for 2016, the main factor that explains this downsizing comes from the combination of China’s economy slowing (second principal value in world economy), financial upheavals and the fall of the price of raw materials.

According to OECD, it’s expected for China to grow up to 6.7% during 2015 and to reach 6.5% in 2016. These forecasts are based upon the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicator for the Asian country, which point out that it is below 50 points, meaning economic contraction. (When this indicator is above 50, it refers to economic expansion and being below 50 refers to contraction).

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GRÁFICO ECONOMÍA CHINA

Anti-cyclic moments, time for planning

The most desirable issue consists on converting the risk that represents an anti-cyclic moment into an opportunity to analyze and to establish a medium and long term planning. Basically because, if operating globally from such a point of view, this will give a preliminary survey of needs and will contribute to accelerate slow recovery entering into a new sustainable balance.

Marine transport as an international trade indicator 

Within this blog among my Global Drivers, transport is an indicator to evaluate world economy situation.

Marine transport, besides being a global economy indicator, helps to define future development trends, even in advanced countries and as well as in emergent countries. It also indicates about how economic, enterprise and competitive planning should be within mid and long term.

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ÍNDICE PRODUCCIÓN INDUSTRIAL OCDE

Marine transportation, which represents more than 80% of traded goods in the world, is growing over world GDP (UNCTAD). World maritime trade grew with only a 3.8% rhythm in 2013, moving 9.6 billion tones. Within, containers raised a 5.1% (651 million TEUs), a very similar percentage to bulk goods trade growth. The relevant issue here is to have on account that this rate represents the lowest rate of the last 5 years.

On the other hand, in 2014 marine trade grew up 4.1%, moving over 10.5 billion tones, and its estimated growth for 2015 will be 3.9%, representing over 10.9 billion tones.

Analyzing the short term, and due to the estimated marine growth contraction, everything indicates a slow recovery; notwithstanding, the positive point is that the gap between offer and demand is reducing.

Baltic Dry is one of the main indexes for measuring world economy situation, besides evaluating transport evolution of solid raw materials by sea. It reached its maximum historical rate in 2008. With economic crisis, the index sunk, reaching a lowest historic rate in 2015, which allows to empower the previous comment about slow recovery.

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BALTIC DRY INDEX GRÁFICO

Less BRICS and MINT and more economic and trading activity geographical areas  

The most extended stream of analysis talks about emerging countries, as key factors within the growth economic equation. Without taking analytical value to this pattern, it is pertinent to point out that there are new reasons to adopt a new vision, centered in areas instead of countries, due to four reasons:

1.- Maintaining the focus on countries offers incomplete parameters because observing economic zones and areas will allow to establish interdependency connections, to measure intra-zone and inter-zone fluxes and, at the end, to obtain the most relevant analytical information in global strategic planning terms.

2.- Some of these countries being part of these two groups represent instability and uncertainty, due to institutional questions as well as political, demographic and to industrial development issues.

3.- A country’s frailties can be compensated (related to international trade streams) by other countries’ strengths not aligned within neither BRICS nor MINT.

  1. If this analytical perspective is assumed, not only a more realistic view can be obtained, but a more positive definition as well from expectations and opportunities.

*BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

*MINT: Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey.

Changes in trade world geography:  The box that is still changing the world

A widening point of view exercise must be carried out and focus put on development areas and not in countries. At this point, it is relevant to underline that there new emerging centers within the marine transportation net which configure with accuracy the delimitation of this trade development zones.

On one hand, the Panama Canal expansion project will rise up to 80% the volume of goods (TEUs) moving within this infrastructure.

On the other hand, the growth on the trade of intermediate products, with a higher added value along with specialized production concentration to serve this demand, takes logistics chains to seek economies of scale. In doing so, the growing size of container carriers’ trend is reinforced producing a direct impact over port facilities, alliances, buys, mergers and is also affecting the concentration of port operators.

RISE OF HIGH ADDED VALUE PRODUCTS TRADE+ CONCENTRATION OF SPECIALIZED PRODUCTION= ECONOMIES OF SCALE= GROWTH OF SHIPS’ SIZE=IMPACT OVER PORT FACILITIES, SHIPPING COMPANIES PORT OPERATORS CONCENTRATION

As Global Marine Trends 2030 brings out, by Lloyd´s Register Marine (www.lr.org), it can be stated that the mid and long term is defined by a series of potential development areas:

  1. The most important is the intra Far East (ASEAN countries)
  2. Far East, Middle East and South Asia.
  3. Far East and Latin America.
  4. Trans Pacific.
  5. Europe Far East.
  6. Africa and Far East.

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Gráfico de transporte marítimo contenedores 2030      transporte marítimo de contenedores gráfico

It could become a general rule of action to use container routes, although these mean only a 13%, because in net value are over 50% of the total amount of carried goods, and thus, their impact sets a trend (“The Box That Changed the World”, de Arthur Donovan & Joseph Bonney).

The zones described are production and consuming zones which, put in relation with the expected growth population, give an idea about the challenges awaiting to satisfy future needs.

It must be clear that currently is the moment to face these challenges. Although slow recovery is not a desirable fact, it gives the chance to prepare and to establish a planning to grow in a sustainable and resilient way.

Cooperation among zones will contribute to the development of world growth. The idea is to advance towards a pattern which should include convergence and synergies among the different areas, avoiding debates and dialectics between developed economies and the emerging ones. The model must try to pass over every country’s weaknesses, focusing over the strengths that come from growth population and its effects over the rise of production and consuming centers. It must also assimilate the concept of strategic geographical zone within world trade routes.

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GRÁFICO DE ZONAS DE LIBRE COMERCIO

Today, Monday, the fifth of October, President of the United States, Barack Obama, reached a trade deal with Japan and other countries from the Pacific zone, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.