Christian Manrique y el Imperio de la Automatización

Christian Manrique, nuevo post.

El uso de drones para el reparto de mercancías, prótesis creadas con impresoras 3D, empresas conectadas por 5G y digitalización de la sociedad y la economía representan solo algunos de los cambios profundos que conlleva la cuarta revolución industrial. Pero en estos procesos también se producen caídas porque la transformación implica riesgos y adaptación. En bez.es se puede leer el artículo completo El Imperio de la Automatización o la Cuarta Revolución Industrial  

 

El Ciclo de Inteligencia 2 por Christian Manrique

Christian Manrique, nuevo post

En esta segunda parte dedicada al ciclo de inteligencia analizo las principales críticas realizadas sobre el modelo y los modos alternativos para plantear el proceso de inteligencia. En este sentido, lo que cuestiono es si es preciso y posible plantear un paradigma alternativo al ciclo. 

Como he adelantado antes, no sólo es preciso y posible repensar un nuevo modelo desde el punto de vista conceptual, sino que es necesario dado que se deben recoger las realidades actuales con los nuevos drivers de cambio.  Debe ser un modelo vivo para que se pueda adaptar a las nuevas realidades que irán emanando. Y dependiendo del sector que se trate, ya sea público o privado, habrá modelos ajustados a cada necesidad. Lo misma ocurre con los modelos de negocios empresariales.

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El mundo según Putin y Trump 2

VIEWS OF PUTIN BY AMERICAN PARTIES

Nuevo post de Christian Manrique Valdor 

Desconfianza mutua entre rusos y americanos

Si bien la devoción  que existe entre el presidente de la Federación Rusa, Vladimir Putin, y el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, es notable; la desconfianza entre ciudadanos rusos y estadounidenses es mutua. Mientras sus líderes consideran una prioridad recuperar y consolidar unas relaciones hasta ahora difusas y ambiguas, la opinión social va por otros derroteros, aunque creen que las relaciones entre ambos países mejorarán. Más allá de las opiniones, Rusia se beneficiaría de las nuevas políticas americanas.

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2017: NEW ECONOMIC RECESSION

United States

The United States Federal Reserve, although slowly, has started to rise interest rate. Increasing interest rates will become a reality.

On the other hand, the current expansive economic cycle is coming to an end, comparing it to the historic amount of time of other cycles within the country.

The CDS rate have gone up, this indicating high probability of financial default. This comes along with decreasing companies’ benefits, as well as inter-annual production rate, and CAPEX stagnation.

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Commodities

Commodities fares have had more than four years on the roll going down not only in emerging countries, but in developed ones as well.

Baltic Dry Index, although it cannot be linked to economy’s behavior, it is a very good indicator in times of economic upheavals, converging with world trade CPB index, right now is in 2012 rates.

On the other hand, Harpex Index is in 2009 rates, showing that situation is decelerating.

Singapore and China

In 2008, Singapore was the first world economy to announce its recession. Currently, that economy is decelerating, like global trade is doing, if its GDP is taken into account.

China’s stagnation is slowing down global growth. Commodities fares fall (with subsequent economic slowdown within commodities producing and exporting countries) and developed countries imports fall, along with China’s growth model change, is giving this stagnation. Its debt’s increase must also be added.

Forecast and solutions

In previous posts, Global Economy in 2020 and 2016: Uncertainty and Economic Deceleration, an analysis about a set of key facts that are taking place was made.

All analyzed factors previously seem to be indicating that the two most powerful economies, USA and China, are decelerating and suffering stagnation, one more conscious about it and another one not at all.

This could lead towards an early recession of both economies, it could become contagious and lead towards a global recession.

In 2007, few were brave enough to point out about entering a 5+5 complicated cycle. 5 years of deep recession and 5 years of stagnation, with the development of new growth models, recovering sooner or later.

Taking these previous indicators into account, that needed and urgent decision hadn’t had all the required development and has not been largely implanted. Therefore, getting out of the crisis will take longer indicating that 2017 will not be a good year.

International organizations aim at lower global growth rates, indicating that until 2020 we will not be ready to create a growing scenario.

Some macro solutions:

  • China should accelerate its economic pattern change, to recover faster and grow within previous rates between 8% and 9%.
  • Developing countries should start urgently a new path towards growth models to improve and strengthen their productivity and competitiveness (the USA expects growth rates up to 2.3% between 2016-2020, but Russia will still be under recession with a -0.7%, improving towards 1% in consequent years).
  • Emerging countries should adopt a model and leave behind being so dependent on basic commodities, so they could turn around deceleration to empower those economies that are growing.
  • Geopolitical tensions should diminish.
  • Restrictive cycle, with interest rate risen by Federal Reserve, should not slowdown growth.

These questions to improve the plain scenario which are being faced have all a common central strategy based on innovation, education and technology.

These foundations will make possible to face the upcoming world and operate within the international scenario in a more competitive way. If this does not take place, recovery will just take longer.

 

 

IDEAS HAVING SEX

 

This post title comes from a sentence by Matt Ridley, a British journalist, businessman and author of popular science books with a very strong scientific background, who when pointing this idea out was making a word game which is easy to accept. Yes, ideas have intercourse taking into consideration that an idea is a combination of several ideas.

Tinder combines match.com with a smartphone. Pizza Hut melts Mc Donald’s and pizza. Mc Donald’s takes hamburgers through a production chain. There would be a wide number of success cases and all of them have in common the conjunction of different ideas.

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ECONOMIC POLARIZATION AS AN OPPORTUNITY

Extreme markets segments era

Market polarization as a trend is not new. On the contrary, it has been going on for the last years. What it is happening, maybe, due to fast changes taking place, is that has been unnoticed for some, while for others has become something normality.

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LOST GENERATIONS?

Economic growth models always go through cyclic and anticyclic processes. Somehow, it is like test they take and results will depend upon their stability and resistance.

In any case, manpower takes most of the damage while these processes are on and consequences are usually devastating. Unemployment increases and a part of the population is put aside because it has specialized in an obsolete model that will never come back. This population group must reinvent itself.

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WORLD UNEMPLOYMENT, WILL IT RISE?

New industrial revolution, known as the fourth industrial revolution, implies a set of important factors deeply concerning current social system.

Previous industrial revolutions transformed all productive sectors, which came along with migration from towns to cities and to industrial areas. In those places, machines took over manual worker. Currently there is a new component that is growing unstoppable: technology.

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WORLD ECONOMY IN 2020

 

Oil as a decisive factor 2016-2020

Oil has gone down to its minimum historical rank within the last decade, the barrel was below 30 USD. Now is at 50 USD. In June 2014 it was at 115 USD.

Beyond geopolitical issues that might have influenced this current situation, there are other aspects to take into account. The increase of oil supply -even higher due to Iran becoming a stakeholder again; low demand, due to China’s crisis; and USA’s reserves, are responsible for this situation.

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TOWARDS A NEW ECONOMIC AND PRODUCTIVE MODEL

A new citizen, sophisticated and demanding

In one of the last posts, technology was spotted as a driver for social, economic, political, legal and environmental change.

Technology, as a tool to improve efficiency and competitiveness, can be regarded as an economic lever, responsible for 25% of GDP growth.

Avoiding to adapt to this new reality is not, therefore, an option. Due to its huge impact, the outcome is that citizen, client or consumer, becomes the center of everything instead of the product.

Current citizen’s profile has evolved in different areas in how she/he communicates, socializes or builds up an identity. This new citizen gets information through multichannel platforms, assuming a key role in debates and having an opinion about matters in which he/she might be interested. Her/his voice, amplified and critical, demands quick and quality answers, in a more sophisticated way.

This new situation rises a challenge as a new paradigm: the business management of the citizen in his/her role as client in the technological environment.

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