Categoría: environment

Christian Manrique y la Despoblación Insostenible

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En este nuevo post, Christian Manrique explica por qué la inversión en informes de Inteligencia Competitiva, en herramientas tecnológicas, Big Data, Internet de las Cosas, se convierten en la solución para luchar contra el fenómeno de la despoblación, la urbanización y la parálisis económica.

#Makeourplanetgreatagain by Christian Manrique

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Post by Christian Manrique

As the US withdraws from the Climate Change Paris Agreement, the world enters a new era of uncertainty about a better future for all. The worst predictions about Donald Trump’s presidency and new policies seem to become realities and therefore rough times are ahead of us, maybe for the next four years, perhaps eight, until he is either removed or finishes his mandate or mandates. He might be the dimmest President the US has ever had. The US is missing the target on Climate Change. Nonetheless, this is not a crisis, it’s just a setback and it can be fixed. Information has become essential for citizens. I’m trying to contribute here with these lines to spread light.

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16 KEYS FOR PORT CITY INTEGRATION Christian Manrique

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Acquiring an advanced and fair society it is in our hands. To do so, sustainable development challenges must be faced under and economic and social model to allow human development in all aspects.

The previous economic cycle, based on the assumption of unlimited growth and the infinite capacity of environment and natural resources, is over. One fact that proves it is that the world has gone through one of the most important crisis and economic breakdowns. This has also caused a social fracture generating indifference over issues that should have been a priority from the beginning. Turmoil can and must be changed.

Although it could be said that destruction mode is on, the blossom of a new better world is possible through a transformation process. Knowledge and expertise of the last years must be taken into account. All agents involved should collaborate. Citizenship, enterprises, Administration, Mass Media and NGOS, among others, must push towards a new socioeconomic behaviour and pattern.

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RESILIENCE AND DISASTER RISK Christian Manrique

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In this video I show that due to natural disasters, such as floods, cyclons, typhoons, earthquakes, tsunamis and windstorms, among others, between 2005 and 2015 over 2 billion people were affected and material losts rised up to 1,3 trillion dollars.

Some engineering solutions and planning can take care of disaster relief.

HURRICANE PATRICIA Christian Manrique

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Why hurricane Patricia did less damage than expected?

When meteorologists and experts were cranking the sirens over the arrival of Hurricane Patricia on the western coast of Mexico, most had in mind the aftermath of typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines. In that case, unfortunately, over 6,300 people were killed.  UN had previously made this comparison taking into consideration any possible risks and the initial magnitude.

Fear of an historical magnitude hurricane –category 5 in the Saffir-Simpson scale- was plausible. Thankfully, hurricane Patricia did less damage than expected, but nobody was able to foresee that with all metrics that is was going to go the other way around.

Therefore, most attention should be paid to the analysis of this particular phenomenon, because it could become extremely useful for planning other similar emergency situations.

If hurricane Patricia caused less damage it was due to warning and evacuation systems, but, above all, it had to do with natural elements and geographic and random factors.

The warning and evacuation system worked reasonably well. Notwithstanding, it must be pointed out, that this might have happened because initially there was a category 5 hurricane expected that turn out to be a tropical storm.

Thankfully, hurricane Patricia landed in a non-populated area and not within the industrial and productive strategic area of Port of Manzanillo or within Puerto Vallarta touristic zone. The outcome would have been absolutely different if this would had taken place.

On the other hand, the hurricane became a tropical storm in less than ten hours, considered an historical event by the US National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, Florida. The unexpected role played in this case by the western Sierra Madre mountains as a natural barrier turned out to be determinant, as the Círculo Volcánico Transmexicano and the researcher from the University of Guadalajara, Ángel Meulenert, suggest.

Even though, we live in the XXI st century, and we rely upon a high degree of technological development, we still depend on random and nature factors when it comes to global disaster relief.

(please click to enlarge)

HURACÁN PATRICIA

Five tips

 Although Hurricane Patricia could be considered the hurricane that never came to life as expected, there shall be five steps taken within global disaster relief, striving to enable quicker and better response during crisis and catastrophes in a more effective, sustainable and cost-efficient way.

  1. Floods: A water evacuation support net should be ready, always according to the amount of water expected in case of use.
  1. Water, power and communications supply must be shut down: There shall be backup systems, as electric generators and water tanks, in order to guarantee supply.
  1. Landslide: A relief road scheme must be planned after analyzing all risks and coming up with contention engineering solutions. By doing so, road blocking will be avoided and, under critical circumstances, towns and cities will not get isolated.
  2. Damage proof and destruction proof buildings:  anti-earthquake and anti-hurricane measures must be implemented always taking into consideration the risks.
  1. River and coast line overflowing: Architectural contention and protection barriers must be design in order to prevent the risks of severe climatology effects. The measures must also provide added value to the areas where these schemes are implemented. They must also contribute to social and economic development within the established natural catastrophe high risk areas. On the other hand, river areas must count with specific disaster relief and support against overflowing as a consequence of severe torrential rainfall produced by hurricanes or typhoons.

If all risks are taken into consideration as well as relief schemes the action of Nature might be mitigated and by doing so securing population from natural catastrophes.

Planning, under resilience patterns, becomes essential for not leaving any aspects to random variables.  It might appear more expensive in the beginning, but it is cheaper compared to material and reconstruction costs. Any cost will always be more reasonable than the human life lost.

NEW PRODUCTION MODEL DRIVERS III by Christian Manrique

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Technology and environment

Geographic areas and its competitive core: Africa, Middle East, Europe, Russia, China, India, Japan, Indonesia, Philippines and Australia.

Africa 

Africa will become the area with the highest population ratio. Of the total global growth of 2.4 billion people between 2015 and 2050, 1.3 billion people will belong to Africa. Thus, growing from 1.8 billion in 2015 to over 2.4 billion by 2050.

In Sub-saharan Africa, water treatment and supply (especially in the center and western parts of the region), mini hydro (East) and Solar photovoltaic power are at the top of development opportunities. All this with the support of power lines and having on account that the area can take advantage of the evolution of communication nets.

Within big cities one of the most relevant issues will be solid waste management and in the North of Africa water treatment and supply, solar photovoltaic power, and solar thermoelectric power will be key issues.

Middle East

Water supply and treatment, as well as solar photovoltaic power generation systems and CSP or thermoelectric solar power are key points.

Europe

Europe has a population of 738 million people and by 2050 it will cut down to 707 million people.

Europe’s future depends on high investment on technology and knowledge. Through manpower and R&D investment, Europe should launch a new industrial revolution to create markets, specifically supplying the increasing demands of services and high added value products, for citizenship as well as enterprises, pursuing quality life improvement.

Within the power and basic supply services areas intelligent services nets should be installed, as well as efficiency systems and power control systems.

Transportation infrastructures should head towards power mobility (buses, cars, trains and ships). Within this field, producing on time information for transportation as well as logistics should be a clear advantage. The path should head towards online infrastructures systems.

Industry still has got a long run for Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) standards.

Russia

Russia has reached a population of 143 million inhabitants and It will decrease to 128 million people.

Water, waste water treatment, hydric power through mini hydro plants as well as treatment and solid waste power value will be a clear development asset in the area.

China

China, with a population of over 1.3 billion people, will rise by 2030 to decrease again to 1.3 billion by 2050.

Massive amounts of population on the coast side is one of the main issues it has to deal with, although it has started to attract population inland, where its main development possibilities are wind and Solar power.

Besides, China needs urgently to low its high pollution levels (which empowers electric vehicle regular implementation) and to rationalize its power consumption. This issue opens a field for power efficiency.

India

Its current population has reached just 1.3 billion inhabitants. It’s estimated that it will reach 1.7 billion by 2050, overpassing China.

Nowadays, millions of people cannot have access to basic supply, power demand is growing and the need for cutting down pollution emissions is higher.

Wind energy, Photovoltaic Solar energy and CSP, water as well as water and solid waste treatment, have become significant elements.

Food industry could be implemented strongly in the country in coming years.

Rest of Asia

Japan, currently with a population of 126 million people, will decrease by 2050 do 107. Its potential lays on solar power development and the implementation of Cyber Physic Systems for industries.

Indonesia has got a current population of 257 million people and it will reach 322 million. The Philippines will grow from 100 million to 148.

Geothermal plants (especially in Indonesia and the Philippines) water treatment, mini hydro plants and water supply systems can acquire great relevance in the area.

Australia

Australia has a population of 24 million people and it is estimated that it will reach 33 million inhabitants by 2050.

To be able to overpass the current commodities low prize situation Australia should look after technological development to implement it through infrastructures (digital infrastructures), intelligent systems (power and water supply management), as well as power efficiency.

Resilient actions are needed in cities and infrastructures in order to face climate change and natural disasters that bring floods and droughts.

Population data was extracted from UNPD site.

PRODUCTION MODEL DRIVERS II by Christian Manrique

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Technology and environment

Geographic areas and their competitive core: USA-Canada and LAC

USA and Canada

The United States has a population of 321 million people and it is estimated that by 2050 it will reach 389 million people. Canada will increase its population from 36 million people in 2015 to 44 million by 2050.

The key point in the USA will be to maintain its determination for renewable energies, technological development and environment.

Context is quite optimal due to three main grounds:

  • A legal framework is being consolidated.
  • There’s investment potential and capability.
  • The USA owns most of the technological knowledge needed

USA’s competitive core for the 10 coming years are wind energy development, solar industry, environment parameters improvements for waste treatment and consolidating the technology for the electric car.

The Canadian pattern, which was based upon natural resources (oil) and service sector is being contracted since the beginning of the crisis.

One of its most relevant strengths has to do with diversification within the telecommunications and biotechnology (biomedicine) fields, areas where time, resources and knowledge were invested.

As in other areas, the future should have on account a strong interest on technology and knowledge, implementation of efficiency energy models and infrastructure development incorporating a high technological investment.

Latin America + Caribbean (LAC) 

Latin America has a population of 634 million inhabitants. By 2050, it could reach 784 million, 150 million people in 35 years.

Among these countries, the population of three of them will decrease their population (Cuba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica). Nonetheless, by 2050 two LAC countries will be among the world most populated (Mexico with 163 million and Brazil with 238 million). Both represent 51% of the area population.

This significant population rise will need better basic water and electricity supply, as well as water treatment, nowadays only covered in a 20%.

Latin America’s production model is based in a large scale in its commodities, provoking an extremely fragile situation, even worst among Mercosur countries than within the Pacific Alliance area.

This scenario, hold for over a decade, stuck all this countries in a comfort zone that did not allow them to push upward a new model based on its strengths and opportunities.

The region after a weakness and strength analysis (natural resources, public policies, government strategies, among others) offers a series of opportunities to encounter its intra-area empowerment main challenges.

Fields of activity that could be used for a new production model:

Assuring water supply and treatment along with solid waste treatment could be one important issue as well as developing more opportunities within renewable energies and bio-energy fields, such as bio-mass and ethanol which have a higher potential.

These activities not only generate value by themselves, but also their generation chain, like their maintenance and operations processes.

Within this production model there are countries who have taken steps forward (Chile, Peru, Uruguay, Mexico and Brazil), but they should empower this way with regulatory frameworks.

Among the isles, on their side, remarkable opportunities are given, specifically in relation with their environmental and energy needs, such as clean and renewable energies, as well as solid waste new management systems, looking towards values as Waste to Energy.

Like this, taking resilient steps against the unexpected climatic and nature odds on infrastructures and building turn absolutely vital.

Another line that could be supported within this field would be giving added value to commodities through innovation. In this way, they could hold on with clear competitive advantages in international markets.

All data about population was extracted from UNPD.

PRODUCTION MODEL DRIVERS

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 Technology and environment by Christian Manrique

Transition times can become harsh, especially those during our recent economic history that have come along with severe financial crisis. Notwithstanding, moments of change can also be perfect for sowing the seeds of future opportunities.

It would be very easy to fall into the well extended cliché, quite true, that in every crisis there is opportunity. So, in accordance to this statement, it should not be the point just to have an analytical reaction. And, nonetheless, it should not be the point to adopt desiderating or extremely optimistic points of view.

Transition times are, above all, moments for planning. Only like this a balanced success can be built on a solid foundation, going deep into understanding issues, having a holistic vision and assuming that not stepping out of the comfort zone is the real risky situation.

Future cannot be foreseen, but planning in advance can be of great help to configure it. Planning how to step out of the comfort zone must be, indeed, the main task in uncertain times.

Under this assumption the debate, very present but not too developed, about changing the production model can be tackled. But it must be done in a way to go beyond simple traditional infrastructures.

This does not mean that they are irrelevant (for developing countries as well as developed countries), but that they must be created under technological and environmental new criteria.

Four fundamental premises

  1. Currently no country can plan its profitable method without having on account world context.
  2. It is about being strong for the next 10 coming years and not just how to be strong just today. It is about looking forward (potential capability) rather than looking at what it’s being done (real capability).
  3. An efficient profitable method must count on citizenship expectations, resource potentiality, political will, enterprises’ stamina and environmental sustainability, as well as technology.
  4. Benefits must be widespread, integral, transversal and able to involve economic viability, financial sustainability, social advantages and environmental improvements.

Common space for a world scale production model

Without giving up specialization in different geographical zones (regional areas, international trade routes and consuming centers), establishing a meeting point for departure it has become determinant. It must also facilitate synergies among these zones and it must allow, as well, the establishment of a pattern for social and economic global growth.

This common space is, nowadays, the place where technology, energy and environment live together, whereas specialization by geographical zones must be settled under the following criteria:

-Needs for social and economic intra-area development.

-Empowering the sustainable profitable use of resources.

-Legal, political and institutional context.

-Competitive advantages within the international context (inter-area).

The competitive core of each area could be defined from the analysis of these four variables (always in terms of economic, financial, social and environmental sustainability).

In further posts I will refer to the four potential opportunities that can be promoted, in accordance with every country’s strategic planning.

SIX GLOBAL DRIVERS OF STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

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These are the six global drivers of strategic management (infraestructures, technology, economics, society, environment and resources) that have become essential for shaping the future of our world. Also, these will stablish the main subjects and categories to write about in this blog. My intention is to do it from a global and multidisciplinary approach. Therefore, this will imply variations on the interest over the drivers and also different outcomes depending on their measurement and their treatment.

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URBAN PLANNING AND RESILIENCE Christian Manrique

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By 2050 world population will reach 9.6 trillion inhabitants and 66% of this growth will take place in cities of the developed world that will be the home of 6 billion citizens.

Population will have to cohabitate with the evolution of urban infrastructures and technology and cities as well citizens will have to be ready to face social, economic and environmental risks.

Just as a significant issue, it must be pointed out that, as EM-DAT sources underline, between years 2000 and 2014 $1.88 trillion worth of damage was caused by adverse natural phenomena.

Within such a context, measures to reduce predictable and specific risks play a highly relevant role in urban planning.

DAÑOS ECONÓMICOS TOTALES POR FENÓMENOS ADVERSOS

 Paths of resilience

SUSTAINABILITY+RESILIENCE=NEW URBAN PLANNING

RESILIENCE= COST EFFECTIVENESS, EFFICIENCY AND RELIABILITY

Resilience is a term born during the 70’s in the ecology field. In relation to our case, resilience is the cities’ capability to respond, to resist, to keep on working and to relief under stress and collapse circumstances.

The driver of planning based upon resilience focuses on strengthening cities touched by climate change alterations and other global threats.

A resilience and planning strategy includes new steps towards the improvement of public and private building taking care of energy efficiency, resistance to climate change as well as adapting transportation, telecommunications, water and energy supply infrastructures against earthquakes, floods and sea level rise.

New challenges

Today, more than ever, Public Administration must invest efficiently in sustainable and resilient infrastructures.

Cities have become complex systems constantly adapting to changing circumstances.

Just having on account the dimensions for achieving sustainable excellence (economic, social and environmental, besides the technical ones) has proved to be insufficient. New urban developments must keep in mind adaptation to climate change and reduction of natural disasters, aiming to prevent or mitigate the loss of essential assets under specific circumstances.

Therefore, it is not just a question of constructing more sustainable or more solid infrastructures. It has become a matter of managing the interaction of infrastructures with the city and with its inhabitants to become more resilient.

A change of mentality is needed. Urban planning must be considered in different dimensions: economic (considering the high costs for not having resilient infrastructures), social (health, wealth, culture and leisure), infrastructures and environmental (energy, water and communications).

Promoting resilience within these dimensions minimizes risks and reduces costs in a long term; the costs of constructing resilient structures are lower and more profitable, as well as, more efficient and more reliable than adapting the existing ones. United Nations has published a study named “Making resilient cities” that can be used as an example.

New York: An exemplary initiative to build up a resilient city

NUEVA YORK NEW YORK, EJEMPLO DE CIUDAD RESILIENTE

The effects of hurricane Sandy in the Caribbean and the East Coast of the United States were severe, even worst in the Lower Manhattan area. Also, within the area comprehended between the Hudson River and the East River, Sandy left 50 people dead, 300.000 damaged homes, without any sort of basic supply for several days, and $19 billion worth of damage. Affected hospitals had to evacuate their patients and the New York stock exchange market closed down for two days causing a world financial shock.

Since then, the city of New York has deployed a series of initiatives to improve the city’s resilience. One of these, known as the Big-U  had as its main goal to implement a conceptual plan to develop a green area with public spaces, cycling roads, cultural centers as a barrier against floods and hurricanes.

It did not just stop there and currently the process continues in order to stablish specific projects in the damaged area to empower coastal protections, public buildings and homes.

Recently the city took a step beyond its own future, when its mayor, Bill de Blasio, announced an integral sustainability and resilience planning, based upon its current plans, with the idea to develop and empower them, denominated OneNewYork. This formula broadens New York’s planning strategy to citizens’ participation, looking forward to having a more sustainable, more resilient and more equal city, also tending to eliminate dumps.