Christian Manrique y Qatar II

Christian Manrique, nuevo post

Christian Manrique expone en este segundo post dedicado a la crisis diplomática en Qatar, en el Golfo Pérsico, el impacto de las medidas tomadas por Arabia Saudí y sus aliados. En este sentido, a corto plazo, el cierre de las fronteras por tierra, mar y aire supone un incremento de costes en las exportaciones qatarís de gas y petróleo, así como una nueva redistribución de la cadena logística en el Golfo Pérsico. Pero existen otros elementos que se deben considerar.

Leer más »

#Makeourplanetgreatagain by Christian Manrique

Post by Christian Manrique

As the US withdraws from the Climate Change Paris Agreement, the world enters a new era of uncertainty about a better future for all. The worst predictions about Donald Trump’s presidency and new policies seem to become realities and therefore rough times are ahead of us, maybe for the next four years, perhaps eight, until he is either removed or finishes his mandate or mandates. He might be the dimmest President the US has ever had. The US is missing the target on Climate Change. Nonetheless, this is not a crisis, it’s just a setback and it can be fixed. Information has become essential for citizens. I’m trying to contribute here with these lines to spread light.

Leer más »

Putin and Trump’s World (1)

Christian Manrique Valdor’s post

“Welcome to my world/ Won’t you come on in/ Miracles, I guess/ Still happen now and then/ Step into my heart/ Leave your cares behind/ Welcome to my world/ Built with you in mind/ Knock and the door shall be open…” Well, maybe, there is a slight chance, as Elvis Presley lyrics illustrate, to have and understanding between Putin and Trump, though the situation is quite tough right now.

Russia: relations with the new USA Administration

 

If the new American Administration, under Trump’s leadership, is able to accomplish its electoral promises, we shall get ready to manage huge social, political and economic changes. This situation will come up with a new situation never seen since World War Two. Vladimir Putin’s Russia might profit from this, seeing an opportunity to regain part of its geopolitical hegemony, no matter where the White House might draw the red lines of this relation, today ambiguous and out of focus. On the other hand, this situation can also generate global risks, creating a fall on world trade due to protectionist measures affecting all economies.

Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again” has got an important social, political and economic slope. His two main electoral promises were these: economic nationalism defence and trade protectionism; in the diplomatic field laid regaining Russia relations. He has started to work on the first goal and, so far, it has affected free trade agreements. The second goal is becoming controversial in USA domestic politics. It’s becoming more real through Syria’s situation, counter terrorism and trying to change NATO’s role.

Regaining influence

The general trend about relations between Russia and the USA has been instability, as well as, mutual accusations, lack of trust and mutual respect, which has been increasing for the last years. Had both countries found a common space for understanding, their relations would have been different, despite USA’s polarization and Trump’s Administration instability. There is still chance for improvement. On this, Russian Government expects international sanctions to lift, respect to its Syrian interests and recognition of its influence in its western ex-soviet landmarks, against NATO and EU interests. Russia’s preferences are of a more Euro-Asiatic kind, its priorities economic and geopolitical, therefore its aim is a geopolitical equality among the USA, Russia and China. This is quite similar to the cold war situation held until the USSR collapse in 1991. Under these circumstances, China is a player that must be taken into consideration.

In the February meeting between the Russian and the USA secretaries of State, Serguéi Lavrov and Rex Tillerson, different issues were on the agenda and red lines were drawn as well: the Minsk Agreement fulfillment, cooperation between both countries if it had benefits for the USA interests and the fight against ISIS, though without military cooperation. From the Kremlin’s point of view this doesn’t look as what Russia understands as an improvement between both countries.

Russia will prefer a joint military action against ISIS in Syria. This will imply USA’s Moscow recognition as an international and equal player. USA support to political reassurance in Syria will be seen as a good gesture by Moscow. Nevertheless, Russia seems to be focused on its own Middle East strategies, oriented towards its own goals, as is going on with Iran, whose Putin’s aims differ greatly from Trump’s.

USA’s Press Secretary statements, pointing out that Crimea should go back to Ukraine, as well as Michael Flynn’s resignation as National Security Advisor, close to Russia, break any possible paths and makes Russia feel more excluded and harassed, specifically by the EU and the NATO, as Russians claim. Besides all these issues that have to be taken into account, the Kremlin follows with expectations the evolution of their relations seeking for an improvement or, at least, normalization. The Western World deceived Russia as a role model after USSR collapsed in the early nineties. Nowadays Russia hopes the situation with Trump will not be repeated, expecting he will help the country to overcome international conflicts and to regain its influence.

Encouraging Value Added Exports

Christian Manrique’s new post

As the IMF WEO (World Economic Outlook) report points out, after a lackluster outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018, especially in emerging markets and developing economies. But let’s analyze 2016 activity. Economic growth was estimated in 3.1%. Nevertheless, World Trade Organization stated that world trade would be around 1.7% below world economic growth. In fact, this has been quite remarkable, as world trade, for the last fifteen years, hasn’t grown below economic rhythm.

Leer más »

Economic Tectonics

Christian Manrique’s post

SAINT ANDREAS FAULT.jpg
Saint Andreas Fault

Besides forecasts by world organizations, the only certainty is that global economy is entering a laterality phase, which leads towards stagnation. Things will move again whenever the light comes back to show the path for the challenges the economy is facing today. This will take quite a long time, though.

Global context

On one side there are oil prices, fewer regulatory barriers and tax incentives. On the other side there are Brexit, China deceleration (probably under 6%) and low economic growth for commodities exporting countries, specially within Latin America). All these factors belong to the specific equation that turn economic growth a complete uncertainty.

Leer más »

El mundo según Putín y Trump y 4

Christian Manrique  Análisis del desempeño del gobierno y creación de oportunidades de negocio Un mes después de que Trump asumiera el cargo, las impresiones iniciales de la ciudadanía del nuevo presidente están profundamente polarizadas y son mucho más negativas que positivas. La última encuesta nacional del Pew Research Center, realizada en febrero, concluye que la […]

El mundo según Putin y Trump 3

russia usa flags

La aplicación de una política nacionalista estadounidense que no quiere pagar más por la continuación de las políticas globalistas abre la vía a una situación ventajosa para Rusia. Existen algunos puntos de partida interesantes en este sentido. El Kremlin pugna por involucrar a Estados Unidos en el proceso político par resolver la crisis en Siria. Además, busca la aplicación práctica de los acuerdos de Minsk sobre Ucrania. Esto le permitiría lograr resultados prácticos y eficaces sobre el terrorismo internacional. Pero, por supuesto, en el ámbito comercial también se podrían alcanzar acuerdos beneficiosos para ambos, aunque depende de múltiples factores. Se acaba el actual ciclo económico y financiero.Leer más »

El mundo según Putin y Trump 2

VIEWS OF PUTIN BY AMERICAN PARTIES

Nuevo post de Christian Manrique Valdor 

Desconfianza mutua entre rusos y americanos

Si bien la devoción  que existe entre el presidente de la Federación Rusa, Vladimir Putin, y el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, es notable; la desconfianza entre ciudadanos rusos y estadounidenses es mutua. Mientras sus líderes consideran una prioridad recuperar y consolidar unas relaciones hasta ahora difusas y ambiguas, la opinión social va por otros derroteros, aunque creen que las relaciones entre ambos países mejorarán. Más allá de las opiniones, Rusia se beneficiaría de las nuevas políticas americanas.

Leer más »

El mundo según Putin y Trump 1

Putin Trump
Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump. Picture by Getty Images published by New Republic.

Nuevo post de Christian Manrique Valdor

 

Rusia: relaciones con la nueva administración estadounidense

Si la nueva administración estadounidense, liderada por Donald Trump, es capaz de cumplir sus promesas electorales, debemos estar preparados para gestionar importantes cambios en materia social, política y económica. Esta situación generará un escenario único desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Una posible beneficiaria sería Rusia que, bajo el mando de Vladimir Putin, ve una oportunidad al recuperar parte de su hegemonía geopolítica, independientemente de hasta dónde ponga la Casa Blanca las líneas rojas en su relación rusa, hoy ambigua y difusa.  Dicho escenario a su vez, puede generar riesgos a nivel global, provocando una disminución del comercio mundial por la aplicación de medidas proteccionistas y afectando a todas las economías.

Leer más »

Riesgos para la Economía Mundial

Un nuevo post de Christian Manrique

Independientemente de los pronósticos emitidos por los distintos organismos mundiales, lo único cierto es que la economía mundial parece entrar en una fase de lateralidad, lo que arroja un estado de estancamiento. Lo que moverá la aguja hacia un lado u otro es cuando se despejen las incógnitas de los nuevos retos que han aparecido, aunque en algún caso se necesitarán  varios años para sentir su efecto.

Leer más »