Riesgos para la Economía Mundial

Un nuevo post de Christian Manrique

Independientemente de los pronósticos emitidos por los distintos organismos mundiales, lo único cierto es que la economía mundial parece entrar en una fase de lateralidad, lo que arroja un estado de estancamiento. Lo que moverá la aguja hacia un lado u otro es cuando se despejen las incógnitas de los nuevos retos que han aparecido, aunque en algún caso se necesitarán  varios años para sentir su efecto.

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La nueva economía de Trump y Putin

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El presidente Trump junto a su hija Ivanka y el primer ministro de Canadá, Justin Trudeau, en el despacho Oval (foto: instagram @ivankatrump). 

It’s the economy, stupid. Esa frase, acuñada durante la exitosa campaña presidencial de Bill Clinton, define a la perfección los escenarios que tienen que afrontar tanto Donald Trump como Vladimir Putin por separado y como “socios preferentes” en el ámbito internacional. Los últimos acontecimientos, como la renuncia del consejero de seguridad de la Casa Blanca, Michael Flynn, podrían dejar entrever, a pesar de la opacidad, un posible trato de favor hacia el Kremlin. Esa decisión política, la salida de Flynn, se produce como consecuencia de posibles negociaciones secretas entre el equipo de Trump y Moscú para supuestamente levantar las sanciones que impuso el Gobierno Obama a Rusia. Pero lo que pone de manifiesto es que la economía y el dinero mueven el mundo, siempre. En este post ofrezco algunas claves sobre las sinergias desbocadas del nuevo imperio que tanto Trump como Putin quieren levantar.

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VALOR AGREGADO E INNOVACIÓN ECONÓMICA Christian Manrique

Producir tecnología y servicios con el objetivo de desarrollar ventajas competitivas es clave para prosperar y crecer económicamente.

Hoy en día, los países o gobiernos que sigan pensando en una economía basada en la mera producción de materias primas o únicamente centrada en las infraestructuras se verán abocados inevitablemente al fracaso.

Las oportunidades no suceden, se crean. Y lo relevante es preguntarnos cómo podemos dar a esas materias primas o infraestructuras unas ventajas competitivas con el fin de generar riqueza y prosperidad.

La respuesta a esta pregunta es clara: dando valor agregado a través de los servicios. Es decir, introduciendo nuestro management y tecnología en los procesos tradicionales de actividad y funcionamiento.
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NEW PRODUCTION MODEL DRIVERS III by Christian Manrique

Technology and environment

Geographic areas and its competitive core: Africa, Middle East, Europe, Russia, China, India, Japan, Indonesia, Philippines and Australia.

Africa 

Africa will become the area with the highest population ratio. Of the total global growth of 2.4 billion people between 2015 and 2050, 1.3 billion people will belong to Africa. Thus, growing from 1.8 billion in 2015 to over 2.4 billion by 2050.

In Sub-saharan Africa, water treatment and supply (especially in the center and western parts of the region), mini hydro (East) and Solar photovoltaic power are at the top of development opportunities. All this with the support of power lines and having on account that the area can take advantage of the evolution of communication nets.

Within big cities one of the most relevant issues will be solid waste management and in the North of Africa water treatment and supply, solar photovoltaic power, and solar thermoelectric power will be key issues.

Middle East

Water supply and treatment, as well as solar photovoltaic power generation systems and CSP or thermoelectric solar power are key points.

Europe

Europe has a population of 738 million people and by 2050 it will cut down to 707 million people.

Europe’s future depends on high investment on technology and knowledge. Through manpower and R&D investment, Europe should launch a new industrial revolution to create markets, specifically supplying the increasing demands of services and high added value products, for citizenship as well as enterprises, pursuing quality life improvement.

Within the power and basic supply services areas intelligent services nets should be installed, as well as efficiency systems and power control systems.

Transportation infrastructures should head towards power mobility (buses, cars, trains and ships). Within this field, producing on time information for transportation as well as logistics should be a clear advantage. The path should head towards online infrastructures systems.

Industry still has got a long run for Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) standards.

Russia

Russia has reached a population of 143 million inhabitants and It will decrease to 128 million people.

Water, waste water treatment, hydric power through mini hydro plants as well as treatment and solid waste power value will be a clear development asset in the area.

China

China, with a population of over 1.3 billion people, will rise by 2030 to decrease again to 1.3 billion by 2050.

Massive amounts of population on the coast side is one of the main issues it has to deal with, although it has started to attract population inland, where its main development possibilities are wind and Solar power.

Besides, China needs urgently to low its high pollution levels (which empowers electric vehicle regular implementation) and to rationalize its power consumption. This issue opens a field for power efficiency.

India

Its current population has reached just 1.3 billion inhabitants. It’s estimated that it will reach 1.7 billion by 2050, overpassing China.

Nowadays, millions of people cannot have access to basic supply, power demand is growing and the need for cutting down pollution emissions is higher.

Wind energy, Photovoltaic Solar energy and CSP, water as well as water and solid waste treatment, have become significant elements.

Food industry could be implemented strongly in the country in coming years.

Rest of Asia

Japan, currently with a population of 126 million people, will decrease by 2050 do 107. Its potential lays on solar power development and the implementation of Cyber Physic Systems for industries.

Indonesia has got a current population of 257 million people and it will reach 322 million. The Philippines will grow from 100 million to 148.

Geothermal plants (especially in Indonesia and the Philippines) water treatment, mini hydro plants and water supply systems can acquire great relevance in the area.

Australia

Australia has a population of 24 million people and it is estimated that it will reach 33 million inhabitants by 2050.

To be able to overpass the current commodities low prize situation Australia should look after technological development to implement it through infrastructures (digital infrastructures), intelligent systems (power and water supply management), as well as power efficiency.

Resilient actions are needed in cities and infrastructures in order to face climate change and natural disasters that bring floods and droughts.

Population data was extracted from UNPD site.