Industry 4.0 and Society 5.0 by Christian Manrique

Most likely, in 20 years we will work 30 hours per week instead of 40, but in more specialized positions, more qualified and strongly related to the knowledge economy. And living with robots. If countries do not prepare, global unemployment will increase significantly.

The german concept of Industry 4.0, Intelligent Industry or 4th Industrial Revolution is for real in development and involves the digitalization of production processes in industry, either through sensors or through information systems, transforming these processes to make them more efficient.

Its progress is characterized by continuous growth and rapid changes, with the goal of prospering and improving living standards through services and products with high added value.

But there is a new concept that is being coined, focused on the people but not on the industry. The Society 5.0.

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Industria 4.0 y Sociedad 5.0, por Christian Manrique

Muy probablemente, dentro de 20 años trabajaremos 30 horas semanales en lugar de 40, pero en puestos más especializados, más cualificados y fuertemente relacionados con la economía del conocimiento. Y todo ello junto a los robots. Si lo países no se preparan, el desempleo mundial aumentará de una manera significativa.

El concepto alemán de Industria 4.0, Industria Inteligente o 4ª Revolución Industrial es una realidad actual en desarrollo que conlleva asociado en su ADN la digitalización de los procesos productivos en la industria, bien mediante sensores bien mediante sistemas de información, transformando dichos procesos para hacerlos más eficientes.

Su avance se caracteriza por un continuo crecimiento y un ritmo de cambios muy rápidos, con el objetivo de prosperar y mejorar los niveles de vida a través de servicios y productos de alto valor añadido.

Pero hay un nuevo concepto que se está acuñando, centrado en el individuo y no en la industria. La Sociedad 5.0.

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BACK TO THE FUTURE Chrisitan Manrique

VEHICLES OF THE FUTURE: SERVICE ORIENTED, INTELLIGENT AND SUSTAINABLE CARS.  FROM THE FUTURE THAT NEVER WAS TO OUR CURRENT SITUATION

Back_to_the_Future

When “Back to the Future” was released in 1985 one of the most famous quotes by Doc Emmet Brown at the end of the first film and at the beginning of the second one of the trilogy was: Roads? Where were going, we dont need roads. The car used in the film, a 1981 DeLorean DMC-12, was turned into a time machine that could actually fly, as Michael J. Fox characterized as Marty McFly pointed out. On the other hand, the vehicle, the time machine who came back from the future (October, 21, 2015), was electrical and powered by a nuclear reactor via plutonium to generate the 1.21 gigawatts of electricity needed. A lightning bolt was used to power the flux capacitor in the first movie. Nowadays, this still sounds like science fiction, though.

October 21, 2015 is the day. Unfortunately, the countdown from back to the future is here and, unless a miracle happens 30 years from that first Doc Emmet Brown’s journey, roads are still in use and cars cannot fly. Nonetheless, some steps forward have been taken and improvements have been produced.  Plug-in hybrid vehicles  and electric cars, as well as hydrogen cars have become a reality.

World vehicle fleet is estimated to have currently 1.1 billion running units and by 2050 it will reach 1.5 billion. World vehicle production in 2014 was 89.734.228 and nearly 80% of it came mostly from 10 countries,  was the ninth amid them.

I suggest that, based upon my own calculations taken from countries’ economic situation and consumers’ taxes, by the end of this year the number of cars produced could reach 90 million units. Meaning a 0.5% higher rate. If production levels are kept in Spain and not taking Volkswagen crisis into consideration, in the short run, the country could rise up to the eighth position overtaking Brazil’s. Out of the 2.7 million units that Spain could produce, 83% would be export based. This due to high demand from Turkey, Poland, Switzerland, South Korea and Japan.

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RANKING DE LOS 10 PRIMEROS PAÍSES PRODUCTORES DE VEHÍCULOS

2014 data taken from: http://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2014-statistics/

2015 data: personal calculations.

Sustainable vehicles: plug-in hybrid cars, electric cars and hydrogen cars will become part of energy technology

Greenhouse gas emission (CO2) reduction is today among world sustainable development goals (SDG), supported by the United Nations SDG 2030 Agenda. If we also take into consideration global population growth, it seems logic to preview that clean technologies applied to mobility will become a very important resource.

Current trends are promoting hybrid cars and technology vehicles powered by gas (Liquid Gas Petroleum (LGP), Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) and Natural Gas Compressor (NGC)), though. Notwithstanding, by 2020 market will be overtaken by plug in hybrid vehicles, electric cars and and units run on hydrogen battery.

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Porcentaje mundial de ventas de vehículos por combustible en 2050

As the International Energy Agency suggests, by the end of 2014 there were 665.000 plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles around the world. Currently, this number has outreached one million vehicles.

The United States (275,100 vehicles), Japan (180,248 vehicles) and China (83,198 cars) have become the countries with the highest number of electric vehicles. In Europe, the most important are the Netherlands (43,762) and Norway (40,887). Spain is far behind with 6.780 units.

The global fleet powered by Natural Gas is estimated to be around 18 million units, 44,590 of them located in Spain.

Currently there are 2.800 orders for hydrogen cars in the world. It is estimated that by 2020 this figure will be the exact amount of units running in Spain, although there are not any.

Intelligent vehicles: wired and driverless

 Vehicles of the future will become part of a digital infrastructure ITS (Intelligent Transport Systems), in which through ICT (Information Communications Technology) use, all will be wired. Such a significant evolution shall have a positive impact on traffic, making it more efficient, cheaper and will increase security levels.

Intelligent Transport System

From this process an important asset will arise: driverless cars, through a testing period at the moment. Google has already launched a prototype, proving that this sort of technology can become a reality in no time.

On the other hand, this evolution will extend new behaviors such as car sharing, following the path set by collaborative economy, cutting down traffic in the streets, reducing the number of accidents by human factor and, above all, saving money.

Driverless vehicles will allow us to manage time in a different way, transforming endless hours on the steering wheel into more profitable hours. In a world where time and its use becomes more expensive, technology will focus on providing services to benefit from this extra time.

And remember that by October 21, 2015, as Doc Emmet Brown pointed out 30 years ago in Back to the Future, we should have been using flying cars because where we were going roads were not needed. Who knows? Maybe he was right and perhaps the year 2015 was just too early.

NEW PRODUCTION MODEL DRIVERS III by Christian Manrique

Technology and environment

Geographic areas and its competitive core: Africa, Middle East, Europe, Russia, China, India, Japan, Indonesia, Philippines and Australia.

Africa 

Africa will become the area with the highest population ratio. Of the total global growth of 2.4 billion people between 2015 and 2050, 1.3 billion people will belong to Africa. Thus, growing from 1.8 billion in 2015 to over 2.4 billion by 2050.

In Sub-saharan Africa, water treatment and supply (especially in the center and western parts of the region), mini hydro (East) and Solar photovoltaic power are at the top of development opportunities. All this with the support of power lines and having on account that the area can take advantage of the evolution of communication nets.

Within big cities one of the most relevant issues will be solid waste management and in the North of Africa water treatment and supply, solar photovoltaic power, and solar thermoelectric power will be key issues.

Middle East

Water supply and treatment, as well as solar photovoltaic power generation systems and CSP or thermoelectric solar power are key points.

Europe

Europe has a population of 738 million people and by 2050 it will cut down to 707 million people.

Europe’s future depends on high investment on technology and knowledge. Through manpower and R&D investment, Europe should launch a new industrial revolution to create markets, specifically supplying the increasing demands of services and high added value products, for citizenship as well as enterprises, pursuing quality life improvement.

Within the power and basic supply services areas intelligent services nets should be installed, as well as efficiency systems and power control systems.

Transportation infrastructures should head towards power mobility (buses, cars, trains and ships). Within this field, producing on time information for transportation as well as logistics should be a clear advantage. The path should head towards online infrastructures systems.

Industry still has got a long run for Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) standards.

Russia

Russia has reached a population of 143 million inhabitants and It will decrease to 128 million people.

Water, waste water treatment, hydric power through mini hydro plants as well as treatment and solid waste power value will be a clear development asset in the area.

China

China, with a population of over 1.3 billion people, will rise by 2030 to decrease again to 1.3 billion by 2050.

Massive amounts of population on the coast side is one of the main issues it has to deal with, although it has started to attract population inland, where its main development possibilities are wind and Solar power.

Besides, China needs urgently to low its high pollution levels (which empowers electric vehicle regular implementation) and to rationalize its power consumption. This issue opens a field for power efficiency.

India

Its current population has reached just 1.3 billion inhabitants. It’s estimated that it will reach 1.7 billion by 2050, overpassing China.

Nowadays, millions of people cannot have access to basic supply, power demand is growing and the need for cutting down pollution emissions is higher.

Wind energy, Photovoltaic Solar energy and CSP, water as well as water and solid waste treatment, have become significant elements.

Food industry could be implemented strongly in the country in coming years.

Rest of Asia

Japan, currently with a population of 126 million people, will decrease by 2050 do 107. Its potential lays on solar power development and the implementation of Cyber Physic Systems for industries.

Indonesia has got a current population of 257 million people and it will reach 322 million. The Philippines will grow from 100 million to 148.

Geothermal plants (especially in Indonesia and the Philippines) water treatment, mini hydro plants and water supply systems can acquire great relevance in the area.

Australia

Australia has a population of 24 million people and it is estimated that it will reach 33 million inhabitants by 2050.

To be able to overpass the current commodities low prize situation Australia should look after technological development to implement it through infrastructures (digital infrastructures), intelligent systems (power and water supply management), as well as power efficiency.

Resilient actions are needed in cities and infrastructures in order to face climate change and natural disasters that bring floods and droughts.

Population data was extracted from UNPD site.