DESEMPLEO MUNDIAL, ¿AUMENTARÁ?

La nueva revolución industrial, conocida como cuarta revolución industrial, conlleva una serie de factores de gran calado que afectarán de manera más profunda al sistema social que conocemos.

Las revoluciones industriales anteriores transformaron los distintos sectores productivos, realizándose procesos migratorios desde el campo a las ciudades y a las industrias, sustituyendo en muchas ocasiones el trabajo manual por el trabajo a través de máquinas. Pero ahora hay un componente que avanza imparable: la tecnología.

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EL MUNDO ES UNA RED SOCIAL

El avance imparable de la tecnología está produciendo unos cambios profundos en todos los ámbitos: económico, social, político, legislativo, empresarial, medioambiental, etc.

No hay ningún ámbito que se escape a esta gran revolución. En el plano social, las redes sociales y las aplicaciones de mensajería instantáneas han ido ganando cada vez más terreno, permitiendo amplificar la  voz del ciudadano, creando corrientes de opinión y estimulando la hiperconectividad.

Pero su impacto va más allá, eliminando fronteras, generando desarrollo y creando un nuevo orden mundial en la forma de comunicarse y relacionarse y, en definitiva, siendo trascendental para configurar identidades.

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INDICADORES DE LA INNOVACION MUNDIAL

“Me he dado cuenta de que cuanto más trabajo, más suerte tengo” (Thomas Jefferson).

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Yo no creo en la suerte, pero creo en el esfuerzo, en el talento y en los méritos.

Con la mentalidad y actitud pertinente, claves para salir de la zona de confort que en muchas ocasiones nos envuelve, se podrán superar los miedos al riesgo y aportar cosas diferentes, cosas que nos permitan ser más competitivos y afrontar la realidad que nos viene en una posición ventajosa.Así podremos aprovechar las enormes oportunidades que presentará un mundo globalizado e hiper-competitivo.

La cuestión es, como en todo, pasar de las palabras a los hechos. Y a la hora de pasar a la acción, la educación y la innovación son los pilares básicos. Se trata de apostar por un nuevo modelo de crecimiento que nos permita ser competitivos.

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NUEVOS MINIMOS HISTORICOS

Baldry

El llamado BDI (Baltic Dry Index o Baldry), es un índice de los fletes marítimos de la carga a granel seca. Refleja precios medios del transporte y contratos, por lo que se considera uno de los termómetros de la evolución de la economía mundial por su capacidad para predecir situaciones de mercado.

A pesar de no tener una correlación directa con la economía es buen termómetro de su estado y puede anticipar ciertos movimientos de aceleración o desaceleración del comercio mundial y, por lo tanto, su comportamiento. De hecho, en el segundo semestre de 2008, donde el índice pasó de los 11.000 a los 700 puntos, pudimos ver la capacidad del BDI para anticipar la crisis.

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LA ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL EN 2020

El petróleo como factor decisivo en 2016-2020

 El petróleo se encuentra en los mínimos históricos de la última década, cotizando por debajo de los 30 $USD. En junio de 2014 cotizaba a 115 $USD.

La gran oferta de petróleo (fomentada ahora con el incremento de producción de Irán), la baja demanda, debida especialmente a la crisis China, y las grandes reservas de Estados Unidos, son los responsables de las situación anterior, más allá de los factores geopolíticos que hayan podido influir.

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2016: INCERTIDUMBRE Y DESACELERACIÓN ECONÓMICA

Un marco de incertidumbre para el año que comienza

En el reciente informe del Banco Mundial sobre la perspectiva económica mundial se señala que en el año 2015 el crecimiento estimado ha sido del 2,4%, frente al 2,6% que tuvo lugar en el 2014.

Por su parte, los datos de la UNCTAD, indican que el crecimiento fue del 2,5% en ambos años.

 Las estimaciones que realizan para el año 2016 arrojan un valor de 2,9% y para los años 2017 y 2018 de un 3,1%.

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TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN EDUCATION Christian Manrique

TURNING TEACHING UPSIDE DOWN.23.10.15.

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Flipped schools: how to apply innovation in educational processes through technology

Innovation plays a main role to face current challenges with success in this fast changing world, where not even the names of future jobs exist yet.

From a clever perspective, taking knowledge and curiosity as the basic axis, further education becomes a valuable asset.

An open minded attitude and rethinking established processes become the key to change towards improvement. It turns even more relevant, referring to education, further education and learning.

Traditional model: the Prussian education system

Nowadays, the vast majority of western countries base its educational model upon the Prussian education system. This system was established in Prussia after several educational reforms in the late 18th and 19th century. Most of us are very familiar with it, due to its widespread influence. The teacher talks and talks about a certain subject, students take notes –most of the time making few or no questions- and then everyone spends time doing homework.

My point here is that in our world, society needs a new education system. A revolution is required: education must adapt itself being able to adjust to the fresh needs of our society. Right now, education and further education are essential drivers of the upcoming social changes, therefore there is a need for an education system based upon learning and innovation.

New system: flipped schools

Flipped schools emerge from this edge. By moving from teaching to learning, the old system turns upside down rethinking its whole base. Students do homework at the school discussing and debating with the teachers, as if it was a seminar, and the learning process continues at home by using technology, watching interactive videos. By doing so, this change empowers creativity, learning, analytics and testing to solving problems successfully.

USA has become one of the most advanced countries using this system. In 2004, Salman Khan started spreading this system that nowadays is used by universities such as Harvard, MIT, UCLA and Columbia.

Khan uploaded his first Youtube videos, and from that moment, thousands of people started watching them to learn by understanding what teachers were not capable to transfer to their students. This is how Khanacademy came to life.

As it was brought up previously, Khan focused on learning instead of teaching. By this, the scheme evolved setting a new pattern: students learn at home watching videos and doing homework at school with teachers and classmates through a collaborative learning process. The aim is to acquire a personalized education plan for each student according to his/her needs and capabilities.

Different and common points between systems 

Regular school system and qualified teachers will be there and technology will never take their place. Notwithstanding, each role is going through a transformation process.

Technology will be used to empower schools, which will become a collaborative institution where students and teachers work together to improve and to take steps towards new heights of creativity through problem solving under different situations. On the other hand, teachers move from teaching towards tutoring and mentoring, supporting and motivating students as an added value to reinforce the issues learnt at home.

Trend or future?

Human factor will still be essential even though technology will take different paths. But, above this, role changing, adapting and moving forward must be taken into serious consideration. New professional categories will stablish and tasks might even change denominations.

Radio, TV and PCs were imagined to change educational patterns when they arrived. Nevertheless, the Prussian education system is still here and this mass media contributed to spreading information. Nowadays information is available in huge amounts, trough mobile devices, easily and directly brought to everyone. What has become more important is analyzing information to take decisions and solve problems. This might be the path towards excellence. The new model described here helps as an innovate tool to make it possible.

Schools and universities from the USA have already taken this system under their academic schemes, creating brand new collaborative platforms as www.coursera.org, www.edx.org and www.udacity.com

A new way of thinking is required to evolve from the old school system towards the steps education is taking. A new combined and more productive method must be adopted in order to cut down social inequality.

EARTH AT NIGHT 2050 Christian Manrique

This video shows how city lights will increase and will spread by 2050 in differents areas of the world: India, China, United States of America, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Bangladesh, Dem. Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Mexico, Egypt and the Philippines

PRODUCTION MODEL DRIVERS II by Christian Manrique

Technology and environment

Geographic areas and their competitive core: USA-Canada and LAC

USA and Canada

The United States has a population of 321 million people and it is estimated that by 2050 it will reach 389 million people. Canada will increase its population from 36 million people in 2015 to 44 million by 2050.

The key point in the USA will be to maintain its determination for renewable energies, technological development and environment.

Context is quite optimal due to three main grounds:

  • A legal framework is being consolidated.
  • There’s investment potential and capability.
  • The USA owns most of the technological knowledge needed

USA’s competitive core for the 10 coming years are wind energy development, solar industry, environment parameters improvements for waste treatment and consolidating the technology for the electric car.

The Canadian pattern, which was based upon natural resources (oil) and service sector is being contracted since the beginning of the crisis.

One of its most relevant strengths has to do with diversification within the telecommunications and biotechnology (biomedicine) fields, areas where time, resources and knowledge were invested.

As in other areas, the future should have on account a strong interest on technology and knowledge, implementation of efficiency energy models and infrastructure development incorporating a high technological investment.

Latin America + Caribbean (LAC) 

Latin America has a population of 634 million inhabitants. By 2050, it could reach 784 million, 150 million people in 35 years.

Among these countries, the population of three of them will decrease their population (Cuba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica). Nonetheless, by 2050 two LAC countries will be among the world most populated (Mexico with 163 million and Brazil with 238 million). Both represent 51% of the area population.

This significant population rise will need better basic water and electricity supply, as well as water treatment, nowadays only covered in a 20%.

Latin America’s production model is based in a large scale in its commodities, provoking an extremely fragile situation, even worst among Mercosur countries than within the Pacific Alliance area.

This scenario, hold for over a decade, stuck all this countries in a comfort zone that did not allow them to push upward a new model based on its strengths and opportunities.

The region after a weakness and strength analysis (natural resources, public policies, government strategies, among others) offers a series of opportunities to encounter its intra-area empowerment main challenges.

Fields of activity that could be used for a new production model:

Assuring water supply and treatment along with solid waste treatment could be one important issue as well as developing more opportunities within renewable energies and bio-energy fields, such as bio-mass and ethanol which have a higher potential.

These activities not only generate value by themselves, but also their generation chain, like their maintenance and operations processes.

Within this production model there are countries who have taken steps forward (Chile, Peru, Uruguay, Mexico and Brazil), but they should empower this way with regulatory frameworks.

Among the isles, on their side, remarkable opportunities are given, specifically in relation with their environmental and energy needs, such as clean and renewable energies, as well as solid waste new management systems, looking towards values as Waste to Energy.

Like this, taking resilient steps against the unexpected climatic and nature odds on infrastructures and building turn absolutely vital.

Another line that could be supported within this field would be giving added value to commodities through innovation. In this way, they could hold on with clear competitive advantages in international markets.

All data about population was extracted from UNPD.

NEW TERRITORIAL FOCUS ON WORLD ECONOMY

 OECD has reduced recently world economy growth perspectives. GDP has been fixed in a 3% during 2015 and it’s previewing a strengthening for 2016 situating GDP in a 3.6%

Although progression of the USA’s (being this country the first principal value in world economy) GDP is 2.4% for 2015 and 2.6% for 2016, the main factor that explains this downsizing comes from the combination of China’s economy slowing (second principal value in world economy), financial upheavals and the fall of the price of raw materials.

According to OECD, it’s expected for China to grow up to 6.7% during 2015 and to reach 6.5% in 2016. These forecasts are based upon the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicator for the Asian country, which point out that it is below 50 points, meaning economic contraction. (When this indicator is above 50, it refers to economic expansion and being below 50 refers to contraction).

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GRÁFICO ECONOMÍA CHINA

Anti-cyclic moments, time for planning

The most desirable issue consists on converting the risk that represents an anti-cyclic moment into an opportunity to analyze and to establish a medium and long term planning. Basically because, if operating globally from such a point of view, this will give a preliminary survey of needs and will contribute to accelerate slow recovery entering into a new sustainable balance.

Marine transport as an international trade indicator 

Within this blog among my Global Drivers, transport is an indicator to evaluate world economy situation.

Marine transport, besides being a global economy indicator, helps to define future development trends, even in advanced countries and as well as in emergent countries. It also indicates about how economic, enterprise and competitive planning should be within mid and long term.

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ÍNDICE PRODUCCIÓN INDUSTRIAL OCDE

Marine transportation, which represents more than 80% of traded goods in the world, is growing over world GDP (UNCTAD). World maritime trade grew with only a 3.8% rhythm in 2013, moving 9.6 billion tones. Within, containers raised a 5.1% (651 million TEUs), a very similar percentage to bulk goods trade growth. The relevant issue here is to have on account that this rate represents the lowest rate of the last 5 years.

On the other hand, in 2014 marine trade grew up 4.1%, moving over 10.5 billion tones, and its estimated growth for 2015 will be 3.9%, representing over 10.9 billion tones.

Analyzing the short term, and due to the estimated marine growth contraction, everything indicates a slow recovery; notwithstanding, the positive point is that the gap between offer and demand is reducing.

Baltic Dry is one of the main indexes for measuring world economy situation, besides evaluating transport evolution of solid raw materials by sea. It reached its maximum historical rate in 2008. With economic crisis, the index sunk, reaching a lowest historic rate in 2015, which allows to empower the previous comment about slow recovery.

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BALTIC DRY INDEX GRÁFICO

Less BRICS and MINT and more economic and trading activity geographical areas  

The most extended stream of analysis talks about emerging countries, as key factors within the growth economic equation. Without taking analytical value to this pattern, it is pertinent to point out that there are new reasons to adopt a new vision, centered in areas instead of countries, due to four reasons:

1.- Maintaining the focus on countries offers incomplete parameters because observing economic zones and areas will allow to establish interdependency connections, to measure intra-zone and inter-zone fluxes and, at the end, to obtain the most relevant analytical information in global strategic planning terms.

2.- Some of these countries being part of these two groups represent instability and uncertainty, due to institutional questions as well as political, demographic and to industrial development issues.

3.- A country’s frailties can be compensated (related to international trade streams) by other countries’ strengths not aligned within neither BRICS nor MINT.

  1. If this analytical perspective is assumed, not only a more realistic view can be obtained, but a more positive definition as well from expectations and opportunities.

*BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

*MINT: Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey.

Changes in trade world geography:  The box that is still changing the world

A widening point of view exercise must be carried out and focus put on development areas and not in countries. At this point, it is relevant to underline that there new emerging centers within the marine transportation net which configure with accuracy the delimitation of this trade development zones.

On one hand, the Panama Canal expansion project will rise up to 80% the volume of goods (TEUs) moving within this infrastructure.

On the other hand, the growth on the trade of intermediate products, with a higher added value along with specialized production concentration to serve this demand, takes logistics chains to seek economies of scale. In doing so, the growing size of container carriers’ trend is reinforced producing a direct impact over port facilities, alliances, buys, mergers and is also affecting the concentration of port operators.

RISE OF HIGH ADDED VALUE PRODUCTS TRADE+ CONCENTRATION OF SPECIALIZED PRODUCTION= ECONOMIES OF SCALE= GROWTH OF SHIPS’ SIZE=IMPACT OVER PORT FACILITIES, SHIPPING COMPANIES PORT OPERATORS CONCENTRATION

As Global Marine Trends 2030 brings out, by Lloyd´s Register Marine (www.lr.org), it can be stated that the mid and long term is defined by a series of potential development areas:

  1. The most important is the intra Far East (ASEAN countries)
  2. Far East, Middle East and South Asia.
  3. Far East and Latin America.
  4. Trans Pacific.
  5. Europe Far East.
  6. Africa and Far East.

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Gráfico de transporte marítimo contenedores 2030      transporte marítimo de contenedores gráfico

It could become a general rule of action to use container routes, although these mean only a 13%, because in net value are over 50% of the total amount of carried goods, and thus, their impact sets a trend (“The Box That Changed the World”, de Arthur Donovan & Joseph Bonney).

The zones described are production and consuming zones which, put in relation with the expected growth population, give an idea about the challenges awaiting to satisfy future needs.

It must be clear that currently is the moment to face these challenges. Although slow recovery is not a desirable fact, it gives the chance to prepare and to establish a planning to grow in a sustainable and resilient way.

Cooperation among zones will contribute to the development of world growth. The idea is to advance towards a pattern which should include convergence and synergies among the different areas, avoiding debates and dialectics between developed economies and the emerging ones. The model must try to pass over every country’s weaknesses, focusing over the strengths that come from growth population and its effects over the rise of production and consuming centers. It must also assimilate the concept of strategic geographical zone within world trade routes.

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GRÁFICO DE ZONAS DE LIBRE COMERCIO

Today, Monday, the fifth of October, President of the United States, Barack Obama, reached a trade deal with Japan and other countries from the Pacific zone, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.